One will run out of fingers if I have to count the number of times I predicted that Nigeria’s APC,the party that rules the harried nation , would fold up and the assortment of members would revert to being enemies. I would also qualify to be a seer in a nation that is awed by anything it can’t explain.
I knew that coalition would die if Mohammadu Buhari, who represents the interests of some in the north, gets elected and re-elected. And the reason is simple: It would appear that the North regards political power as a natural resource and any party that furthers that end becomes the relevant party.
The PDP, for instance, was going to ensure that the South would stay in power for 17 year (Obasanjo and Jonathan).The prospect for the North was too grave and tragic and everything must be done to cripple the party.
APC was formed to ensure that “power must return to the North”,as they boasted. And so, even the founders of PDP left. With help from the media (domestic and foreign) everything was done to make the PDP look bad- Boko Haram, Bombing the UN building, Chibok Girls, NNPC missing billions stories,etc.
At Chantham House in January of 2015, Mr Buhari was baptized as president and the elections in March were a mere formality.
A lot has happened since then but let’s see how a convenient honeymoon turned into a horrible divorce. Bola Tinubu figured that he could cash in on the apparent naivety of Buhari by being a running mate but when that didn’t happen, he smartly chose his lackey, Yemi Osibanjo. The north knew what Tinubu was up to and so they put the leadership of the National Assembly beyond his reach.
Because the north was interested only in oil and allied revenues, they let the south have some posh offices. Mr Tinubu chose the chief tax collector of Nigeria, Babatude Fowler, who made too much noise about how rich the office is. The north has since corrected that foolishness by changing Mr Fowler.
After the 2019 general elections, the APC was no longer of any strategic interest to the north since power is zoned in Nigeria. Mr Tinubu is unable to hide his ambition of succeeding Mr Buhari. Because of that motive, he endures incalculable humiliations from the north. Lagos ,for example,has a Fulani emir that even the governor must defer to. Vice President Yemi Osibanjo is treated with utmost disdain : his office being basically useless.Speaker of Parliament, Femi Gbajiabiamila, first had to convert to Islam.
Cutting Tinubu to size and wiping out APC.Let’s not forget that the objective for the north is to keep power . It has become necessary to kill the APC because it aims to zone the presidential candidate to the South. The South West and South East are polar enemies which the north uses to convenient advantage.
The math is simple: Tinubu (Yoruba) gets the nomination and picks a northern VP. The north uses another party, PDP, for instance, and gets a South East (Ibo) VP. Bloc votes from the north and south east would ensure a landslide. To cap it, head of the election board will also be Ibo who won’t declare Tinubu winner even if he gets all the votes.
It is a wonder that Mr Tinubu didn’t see this obvious pitfall hence he gets further humiliations hauled on him. He is fighting for territory with the speaker of Lagos state ,Modasiru Obasa; something unthinkable 18 months ago. Adams Oshiomole ,who was planted by Tinubu, has been harassed out of office and the party broken into shards. Mr Oshiomole is fighting off a possible arrest.
Speaking of arrests: there were protests in Abuja Thursday which specifically called for the apprehension of Mr Tinubu. Among other financial crimes, they say bullion vans carry tons of cash to his Ikoyi residence. He also operates toll gates on federal roads in Lagos. Yet,no one would dream of harassing the former governor prior to the 2019 election. The north needed Tinubu,Oshiomole and APC like oxygen. But now, those are huge liabilities.
protests were sponsored is not in doubt but Mr Tinubu has so many
enemies that he doesn’t know from which one of them he is hearing. But I
can assume that it is all about making him a very weak candidate in the
next election. If he gets that far.
Already, in Edo and Ondo ,two states he considered his territory, Tinubu would be stoned if he set foot in either of them. Oshiomole ,too , risks possible arrest should he visit home.
By way of a conclusion, it bears reminding that APC was formed by former enemies who had different motives but only the north was very focused on its motive – power.
And by way of contrast,a resurgent PDP serves the northern interests and the safest way to ensure that is to disable APC.