By nature, coalitions don’t last if only because very often, they are made up of former enemies who unite against a common enemy. It has failed in Isreal, Japan and Australia and it is ripping itself apart in Nigeria.
As is it the wont with all alliances, once the enemy is defeated, the threat is removed, the park dissolves as each member goes back to being the enemy of another member. A euphemism for it in Nigeria,for instance, is “factions”.
Formed in 2013 with help from the international community, APC was a group of 5 former bitter enemies whose raison d’etre was to stop Goodluck Jonathan from continuing as president and replacing him with a Northerner.
Well, Jonathan and power became history on March 28, 2015 and the APC mission was accomplished, it would seem.
This article won’t bore you with how the coalition has behaved since assuming power. It will seek ,rather, to highlight why the party is evaporating so soon and so fast.
Factor A,Former Enemies.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Lagos state governor,envisioned a Nigeria where he would control everything and everybody just the same way he does the South West.
Members of Goodluck Jonathan’s government joined Mr Tinubu along with a former vice president, Atiku Abubakar.The most telling part is that he was able to impose Mohammadu Buhari, one of his former enemies and jailor of his tribesmen, on the party. He also quickly chose the vice presidential candidate.
An inordinately ambitious man,some say Mr Tinubu’s hope was that Mr Buhari will die in office quickly being a sick man. That way, he will control Yemi Osibanjo, the robotic vice president.
With all his various hospitalizations, Mr Buhari refused to die and Mr Tinubu now wants to succeed him in the next election.
Precisely because Mr Tinubu is not able to hide his ambition, he is now hearing from enemies he thought were his friends. These are mostly governors from the North.
APC became useless to the North after it won the 2019 general elections. Having endured Mr Tinubu’s overbearing heat for four years, the North replaced most of their governors with men from the PDP, party of the feeble opposition.
The aim is to make it formidable going into the next election. States in Mr Tinubu’s South West are split between the APC and PDP. The idea is to deprive him of a territory he has come to take for granted.
Factor B, Adams Oshiomole.
Mr Buhari’s government really didn’t have an agenda beyond replacing Mr Jonathan and Mr Buhari wasn’t dying and so, the chairman of the party, John Oyegun, had to go, to be replaced by Adams Oshiomole, chosen by Mr Tinubu.The agenda didn’t change. Oshiomole is to ensure that Mr Tinubu’s dream doesn’t die.
But Mr Oshiomole is cut from another cloth, different from Tinubu. He had/has his own ideas. After crowning himself as associate president, Tinubu became a prisoner of Oshiomole and vice versa. If Oshiomole falls, Tinubu falls. And their enemies know this.
Because ambitious people are basically disloyal, Mr Oshiomole has caused more troubles for the Tinubu dream than help it.
In March, reports say that Mr Oshiomole was saved from an ignominious exit by Abba Kyari, Buhari’s chief of staff who will die a month later.
And in June, an appeals court endorsed the suspension of Mr Oshiomole as Chairman of the party. He has been fighting for his life since then and Mr Tinubu no longer has the magic he used to have. Thus the two men can’t save each other and themselves. About three different groups now head Mr Oshiomole’s office. Godwin Obaseki, governor of Edo state, Oshiomole’s home state, has moved to the PDP.
In Ondo state, South West, the deputy governor has moved to the opposition while keeping his office.
Factor C and finally, Factions
What remains of the party is now in splinters. The National Working Committee ,NWC, apears to represent Mr Oshiomole and Tinubu. Another faction led by Victor Giadom, is loyal to those who seek to cause grief to Mr Tinubu. He is holding a virtual NEC meeting with the president Thursday. And Giadom and the NWC are at each other’s throats.
As Mr Oshiomole remains suspended, most Nigerians believe it has to do with Edo state elections. It isn’t.
The collapse of APC is deliberate and it is being weakened just so that any Northern candidate will defeat Bola Tinubu in 2023. It is the only way the North can keep power and power is the only resource known to the North.
Adams Oshiomole is just a pawn in the quiet fight to emasculate Tinubu. It is a wonder that both men can’t see the big picture. Namely that APC was a convenient stick of cigarette and that it is time to switch brands.