Mohammadu Buhari’s government is no longer able to secure the lives of Nigerians. Its military and police are woefully inadequate as they are often complicit in the various crimes that pervade the whole land- Kidnaping included!
As the situation worsens, citizens, communities and states have resorted to securing themselves. In the North where Mr Buhari comes from, it is so bad that half the youth population has fled to the south. A raft of those do very serious crimes in their new homes.
Governors in the North have local police arrangements known as Hisbah. In Borno state, they are trained in arms and allied weapons.
The South South has cells of active vigilantes. They do what they can to slow down kidnappings, killings, rape and sundry other crimes which are often attributed to Fulani Herdsmen. Myetti Allah, a Fulani group also has a military wing.
And so, in the new year, the government of the south West, home of harried vice president Yemi Osinbajo,put together an outfit complete with colorful uniforms and vehicles. They seem well organized. Codename: Amotekun , leopard, kinda.
But Mr Buhari’s government announced Tuesday that Amotekun is an illegal organization. Its Attorney general, Shehu Malami ,says that security is in the “exclusive list”. Essentially, even though the south West is not safe in the face of a an ineffectual government, the region can’t defend itself.
Afenifere, a pressure group for the Yorubas, has dismissed Mr Malami’s proclamation. That he lacked the right to make laws for Nigeria.
A sore point is that Yorubas are the reason this government came to power and it suffer punishment as against rewards. Last year, Mr Buhari’s Fulani established their own vigilantes in Yoruba land.
Trailer lorries ferrying young men and women from the North arrive Ilorin, Ibadan , Lagos and other western cities endlessly. The Yorubas see this as a systematic penetration. Already, the young men are on the streets ,scavenging, riding bikes and selling everything.
Former governor of Ekiti state, Ayodele Fayose, had his own security arrangements that worked but his own people worked against him.Now they are vulnerable to attacks.
What’s more, those influxes from the North consider themselves above the law. They have no known addresses, for example. A tipping point is just around the corner.
A major showdown is in the works between the government and Yorubas. Mr Buhari would need to be careful. His very insecure government can easily crumble when hit by Yoruba propaganda, one of the very few things the tribe is good at. Mr Buhari also runs the risk of offending his people who “voted” for him because he made a promise to resettle them in the South.
The scenario is grim and the government is confused. Bola Tinubu, who kids himself that he would succeed Mr Buhari is in a trap of his own. He has to support the destruction of his people and earn their anger or support his people and earn Mr Buhari’s wrath. Either prospect is far from appealing.
It is to be seen what will play play out.
But in declaring Amotekun illegal, the government seems to suggest that it has a hand in the crimes in the South West. A huge admission of guilt.
For some twisted reason, Mr Buhari’s government believed that US president, Donald Trump, will be impeached and removed from office. But the nickel seems to have dropped: namely, that Mr Trump isn’t going anywhere. And so, as all oppressed people around the world look up to Trump, Mr Buhari’s men won’t like a full blown confrontation with the South West. Again because they are good at outrage and propaganda.
But, as they say, let’s see what happens. But as they dont say, I dont think what happens will be pretty.